Daily independent weather forecasts for the Kansas City area

Friday, January 12, 2007

Mid-afternoon storm update. My brain hurts. . .

I'm sitting here looking out the window (hehe) watching snow and sleet start to cover everything, more snow than sleet now. Grrr. . .this storm setup is driving me nuts! Looks like the impact is going to be greater than I thought. Shoot, it already IS! 14 degrees right now and continuing to get colder. Because it's so cold, it's not going to take a lot of moisture to make a lot of snow. Twice as much snow for the moisture buck if you will.

So, now my mind is consumed with what to do with the forecast. I'm tempted to go home and do an audio update, but I fear I'll jump on this only to have it revert back to what I was thinking all along. We'll see. . .

The warm air is still there, it's just further aloft. Half the cloud layer is below freezing, half is above, and that was in the morning soundings from Topeka. Of course, most of the special upper-air sites in Oklahoma, and the site in Springfield have all done mid-day soundings. Could Topeka do one? Please!

Model versions of the soundings from the new data are showing cloud layer sinking putting a majority of it in the sub-freezing air. This is where our sleet/snow line is going to be decided. Within the cloud layer. So, I'm definitely siding on the SNOW side right now. Still fear that the warm air is going to get cranking aloft, but it's hard to think that it's going to get cranking soon enough to bring us back into the sleet. Just hard to bite on it.

Great. Nice little snow burst. . . this is killing me. We're going to get 2-4 inches of snow if this keeps up. I think I WILL head home and do an audio update. May wait an hour to do it, but I think we are bound for mostly snow here in town. SE of town. More ice. Could accumulate to 1/2 inch. Travel does not look like much fun the next few days.

UPDATE: Going to hold off on the audio update after getting a better look at how things are progressing this afternoon. May do one early this evening, but we'll see. Precip is back to mixed bag; Sleet/snow/freezing rain right now, but still think our snow potential is much greater than it looked last night.

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