Daily independent weather forecasts for the Kansas City area

Thursday, January 11, 2007

Cold front enroute

I thought I'd share a few graphics with you guys if you wanted to track to progress of the arctic cold front. At noon, the arctic front had already passed through Omaha, dropping temps into the 30s, but most of the state was in the 20s or teens.

All the development of rain so far today has been across central Missouri, with new weather data pointing to an even drier solution for Kansas City initially than was has been hinted at in previous runs of the numerical models. Current trends support this theory. So I would expect most of the rain to be southeast of the metro area until Saturday afternoon. I'm certainly not saying that we won't see any rain/freezing rain/sleet until then, but anything that does fall looks to be light in nature. Also, given the progress of the cold air, I'm anticipating more of a setup for sleet than a freezing rain.

There are still some questions with regards to the evolution and track of the main storm system. It looks like it will undergo some significant weakening before it passes us on Monday. That would hint at the possibility that the cold air would have an easier time progressing southward and quicken the change to snow. However, temperature profiles do not support this thought, and with the storm remaining west of us, and strong jet stream winds out of the southwest continuing, it looks as though the changeover wouldn't occur until Sunday afternoon. That would mean that the best chances for precipitation around our area to be in the form of sleet rather than snow. Still questions where the dry slot will progress vs. the deformation area where the best chances for snow will exist as well... but I'll have to look further at this tonight.



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