Cold air winning the battle

Well... I may need to re-evaluate precipitation type in the forecast. Not going to jump on anything yet, but there is already snow being reported up at the airport. While the cold front passed through earlier than what was expected a few days ago, it had still appeared that the full column of air would remain warm enough for sleet to be the primary precipitation type when I worked on the forecast last night.

Seeing a changeover to snow makes things even more difficult to forecast what will fall when the main storm system approaches. Warm air will still overrun the cold front aloft, but right now the main question is, "how deep will the warm air be?"

Oh... looking out the office window now, and seeing the snow falling. Yup, it's going to be an interesting forecast. If we continue to cool substantially, I'll defiantly have to change the forecast to all snow as the deepest moisture heads our way. This would equate to accumulating snow in the metro. At least snow is easier to clean off the windshield than ice is!

More updates later today as some of the new weather data rolls in. If you want an in-depth look at what I was thinking last night, please click the link to listen to the podcast in last night's post. And of course, a full audio update late tonight.