Mid-morning update

I am starting to get a feeling that we will not have enough instability to overcome the cap properly. A large area of showers has continued to develop throughout the morning across eastern Kansas. While the kinematics may still be strong enough to break the cap this afternoon, we may be stuck with elevated storms due to lack of low-level instability, thus the tornado threat may be going down. However, with mid-level lapse rates on the order of 8.5 degees/km and a strong dry punch of air aloft, very large hail and damaging winds are certainly possible.

I may be meeting up with my chasing buddy, Jared Guyer, this afternoon. He's enroute to KC and will likely arrive around 1:30.