Sunday evening forecast discussion

Not much time for a discussion tonight...

Main questions center around degree of warmup tomorrow and precip chances for Wed night/Thursday. WAA already beginning aloft in KC. Models prog thickness a thickness rise of 12-14 Dm and H850 temps up 10 degrees overnight. As downslope winds pick up with ample mixing during the day tomorrow, temps will likely scream upwards. Given degree of warmup in the atmosphere and realitivaly dry airmass, a 40 degree rise is not out of the question. Unusual, but we've already seen this type of return and more at least once this winter. With lows around 18 tonight, a 40 degree rise will paint temps of 58. Have gone with this solution.

Models are now starting to come together with evolution of storm system for Wednesday night into Thursday. Main question is how quickly the cold air will settle in. Models are trending cooler as time wears on, but still hinting at a rain even initially. May see a changeover to mixed precip as we head into Thursday. Model soundings hint at more of a mix than a freezing rain event, but it's still much too early to make a call.