Monday evening forecast discussion

Main questions center around strength of warmup Tuesday and Wednesday. Temps with high clouds reached to 70 at MCI, 72 in STJ. High clouds are exiting the area tonight, and with west and southwestly winds tomorrow, we should advect in some downslope warmed winds. Weak back-door cold front inches in overnight across nothern and NE MO, but any semblance of a front will wash out in the morning. Winds don't look too terribly impressive during the day tomorrow, so max mixing will be held somewhat at bay. As a result, I'll hold Tuesday temps back just a hair and hit max heat Wednesday.

Cold front for Wednesday continues to slow. FROPA should happen sometime in the late afternoon. This sets the stage for some compressional heating and also a slight chance for a thunderstorm with some moisture pooling along the front and likely nearly adiabatic lapse rates in boundary layer. H850 temps warm to the 18-19 degree range with thicknesses approaching 568 Dm. These are a good 8-10 degrees and 10 Dm warmer than conditions today. I'll have to go with temps in the 80s, and may be warm enough to cap atmosphere. Temped to go 82, but may split the difference with a little more sane temperature forecast. Splitting hairs here... 80 or 82... STJ has been warmer all winter, anyway, so 82 may fit there anyway...

Cold front blows though Wednesday evening, but cold air takes its time to work in. Another wave rolling through Saturday brings our first chance for precip in a while, but given model performance this winter, I wouldn't be suprised to see these chances diminish as we get closer.