Daily independent weather forecasts for the Kansas City area

Thursday, March 24, 2005

A changing weather pattern

The clouds and rain kept temperatures at bay today, and unfortunately, we are going to be stuck in the cloud cover through Saturday. While the clouds and drizzle stick around the area, we are at the beginning of a significant change in the weather pattern.

Over the last several weeks, we’ve been between a trough to the east and a ridge to the west. These features continue to break down. As they do, we are moving into what we call a “progressive westerly” weather pattern. This type of weather pattern is characterized by rapidly moving storm systems that roll off the coast of California and head into the plains. During the winter, these storms systems have the greatest potential to bring heavy snowfall to Kansas City. During the spring, severe weather is common. One of these storm systems will head our way on Tuesday night and Wednesday, and may bring a chance for severe weather across the southern plains. Right now, it looks as though it will stay far enough south to keep the chance for severe weather out of the Kansas City area, but we’ll have to keep an eye on how things progress over the next few days.

Another feature associated with a progressive westerly weather pattern is rapid warm-ups, as we often see warm and dry winds push into the Kansas City from the southwest. Here is the forecasted 850mb temperatures from this afternoon's run of the GFS model.

6Z GFS 850mb forecast for Tuesday night

We could see temperatures into the 70s on Tuesday or Wednesday ahead of that storm system! Spring is starting to win its battle with winter...


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