Daily independent weather forecasts for the Kansas City area

Tuesday, February 01, 2005

Quick Tuesday Afternoon Discussion

Ahhh... the beauty of multi-channel satellite products....

I came into work today with my mind set on looking at my favorite low-cloud satellite product, the 3.9 - 11 micron composite imagery from UCAR. It didn't dissapoint today. Although the first hints could be seen in the sunrise this morning, the multi-spectral image showed some significant scouring of the low clouds occurring over central MO overnight, and the dry air was moving west. A little daytime mixing, and that area would grow over the city. Sure enough, the clouds broke, and we have surged into the 40s. TOP is still socked in with the clouds, which makes forecasting the clouds a little tricky from a model standpoint. Both the NAM and NGM grids keep TOP in the clouds through Thursday morning with both models continue to show moderate inversion in the T1 to T3 layer. For us, it's going to be tough to bring the clouds back in here after daytime mixing has presumably eroded the inversion. With easterly winds through at least Thursday, the likelyhood of the low-level moisture moving back is pretty slim.

All there is left of focus on is the warmup. The odd weather pattern continues this week with the cutoff low to the southwest and the main polar jet bottled up well north of the border. Models are in moderate agreement with regards to the kicking the initial cutoff out into E OK and AR tomorrow. The NGM is a little further north and more compact and the GFS is the weak outlyer. Either way, it's difficult to see it making any big differences in the forecast. If the NGM solution turns out better, it's possible we may see a few more clouds with PVA during the afternoon. Given the history of the last storm, its certainly possible that this will come out more solid than the NAM and GFS are thinking, though I still think the NAM solution is more realistic. Given the clearing today, its possible that we may warm more tomorrow than the models would like to have us believe. Only linchpin is high clouds. The NGM is the most agressive, which isn't saying much. I'd have to estimate temps into the mid 40s tomorrow... Near or just above 50 Thursday, and near 60 by Friday.


Post a Comment

<< Home