Forecast and Discussion - February 28, 2005

The cold air continues to filter into the area today as our first blast of Canadian air in some time skirts us to the east. Temperatures have only warmed to 30 degrees across much of the area thanks to ongoing CAA. With moderate mid-level lapse rates, we’ve also seen a good deal of cold-air CU form across the area. While there is a chance we could see a few flakes come from this instability, I think chances are certainly best to the northeast of Kansas City. The increase in cloud cover should continue to keep temps down some. Maybe I should have stuck to my instincts and kept highs around 34 today instead of being persuaded by the other mets in down calling for upper 30s, as well my tendency to low-ball temperatures by 3 or 4 degrees last week. Oh well…

The weather pattern continues to amplify across the eastern third of the US, as the first nor’easter of the winter cranks up off the east coast. To the west, the Rex block has broken down, but there is still evidence of continued split flow in the southern stream, though the main player is really a ridge through the Great Basin. Split flow or not, it doesn’t appear as though we have any moisture headed toward us until possibly the end of the week.

Models initiated very well thermally this morning, and as a result, all are in very good agreement as to the scope of our warmup into the middle of the week. Rather uncharacteristically, models are taking their time evacuating the cold airmass over us, instead of advertising a quick downslope warmup. I still think temps in the 30s are good through tomorrow with 850 temps below -5 and 1000-500 mb thickness progs only warming to the 530 range tomorrow afternoon. If this was a month ago, we’d be talking about high temps below freezing. We should continue under northerly winds through tomorrow until they shift southerly Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Tonight: Clearing and cold. Low: 18
Tomorrow (Tuesday): Partly to mostly sunny. High: 38
Tuesday night: Clear. Low: 24
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High: 45

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