Daily independent weather forecasts for the Kansas City area

Friday, January 28, 2005

Another Friday forecast discussion

It's another Friday, and I have another couple of hours to look at the weather. Plus, we are getting our first snow since before Thanksgiving, so I feel a little more weather-ready (though not as much as yesterday).

Snow confintues to fall tonight as a small system spins past us to the southwest. The storm is taking a little more of a northern track to keep us out the maximum snow. The heaviest band has already passed by and we are about get get dry-slotted. The snow will probably end around here in an hour, and we'll see little after it as the center of the storm passes near or over us.

The 21Z RUC is still a little too far south with this storm, so it makes we wonder how well they are handling the next storm now over Monterray, CA. Models continue to show this storm diving into the southwest and cutting off hard. Then we go into an odd split-flow weather pattern. Odd, because we have a continual deformation zone between the cut-off to southwest and waves in the northern stream. Because of this, and little in the way of steering currents around here, we'll probably be socked in with the clouds for some time. The models don't really have a good handle of the timing of waves propagating in this pattern, flip-flopping with each run and each are different. Best consensous is a wave that dives south just NE of us in the Monday night - Tuesday time frame. There is another wave that gets spit out from the cutoff on Sunday, but it looks weak, and I'm not terribly confident in it being strong enough to effect us. The ECMWF and GFS have been pretty consistant in keeping the cutoff in place through at least Friday.

So... until further notice, it's status quo for the weather. Mostly cloudy with highs in the low to mid 30s through much of the week. No precip from late in the morning through Sunday. Small chances for snow come back in Monday, but that's all the excitement here. It's been dry, so hopefully we'll get more precip soon.


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